How a pro game can swing, minute by minute.

Victarc forecasts the arc of win probability in League of Legends esports. Before the game it gives a range of curves for every minute; once the game starts it updates that range from what has actually happened.

Illustration only, not a real game. Gold: what has happened so far. Teal: the expected path and its likely range for the rest of the game.

What it does

Pre-game arcs

Before the first minute, a likely range of win probability for every minute of the game, based on the two teams and their drafts.

In-game updates

As the game unfolds, the range is re-forecast from the actual state of the game, so you see both where it stands and where it could go next.

Draft simulationIn development

Pick any two teams and drafts and see how the whole game is expected to play out, and which picks and bans move the odds.

How we work

Ranges, not one number. A single win percentage hides how uncertain a game is. We show the band and check that it is as wide as it should be.
Honest evaluation. Every model is scored on games it never saw, in time order, and we say so where it does not beat simple baselines.
The current game, not old patches. League changes a lot each season, so models are trained on recent seasons only.

Status

Victarc is a non-commercial research project in active development. The forecasting tools are not public yet. This page will grow as results are ready to share.